WASHINGTON (July 29, 2013) – After reaching the highest level in over six years, pending home sales declined in June, with rising mortgage interest rates beginning to impact the market, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, edged down 0.4 percent to 110.9 in June from a downwardly revised 111.3 in May, but it’s 10.9 percent higher than June 2012 when it was 100.0.
The data reflect contracts but not closings. Pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 26 months, and the pace in May was the highest since December 2006 when it reached 112.8.
“Mortgage interest rates began to rise in May, taking some of the momentum out of contract activity in June,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “The persistent lack of inventory also is contributing to lower contract signings.”
Yun says a quick rise in mortgage interest rates during June may have had a bit of an impact too.
“There are some homebuyers who sign contracts with strong lender commitment letters, but have floating mortgage interest rates,” Yun says. “Those rates can be locked as late as 10 to 14 days before closing, so some homebuyers may change their minds if the rate rises too much, which apparently happened with some sales scheduled to close in June,” he said. “Closed sales may edge down a bit in the months ahead, but they’ll stay above year-ago levels.”
Pending home sales in the South fell 2.1 percent to an index of 118.3 in June but are 9.5 percent higher than a year ago.
Based on year-to-date sales activity, and stable contract signings expected for the balance of the year, NAR projects existing-home sales to rise more than 8 percent in 2013. Inventory shortages will lead the median price to rise by nearly 11 percent this year.